Since Bitcoin (BTC) printed its all-time high on Oct. 6, a wide range of price forecasts has emerged.
While some projections have called for a move as high as $200,000, others have argued that the rally may already be over, with $126,198 representing the cycle peak.
As the New Year approaches, attention has increasingly shifted toward longer-term outlooks, including Bitcoin 2026 price prediction.
In this analysis, CCN examines the perspective of Farzam Ehsani, co-founder and CEO of crypto exchange VALR.
We also examine on-chain and technical indicators that may help frame Bitcoin’s price action beyond the coming weeks.
Bitcoin Correction Could Soon Be Over, Analyst Says
Ehsani, in an exclusive conversation with CCN, told us that the cryptocurrency market is closing the year under significant pressure.
He mentioned that this happened due to weak seasonal trends and growing preference for lower-risk assets.
“The end of this year remains one of the more challenging periods for cryptocurrencies in recent years,” Ehsani said, citing “seasonal weakness, persistent overbought conditions, and a return of investor interest to more conservative instruments.”
Ahead of the New Year, the CEO emphasized that regulatory approval will play a crucial role in determining how crypto prices perform.
Regarding the Bitcoin 2026 price prediction, Ehsani remains cautiously optimistic about the longer-term outlook.
He said BTC could hit an all-time high in the first half of 2026, with prices potentially returning to the $120,000 range by the second quarter.
“A renewed historical price high could occur as early as the first half of 2026, with the price expected to return to the $100,000–$120,000 range in the second quarter. Historically, the first months of the year are not particularly dynamic,” he added. “Traders tend to adopt a wait-and-see approach as markets search for new growth drivers and opportunities.” He added.
Does On-Chain Analysis Agree?
Meanwhile, on-chain data from CryptoQuant suggests that short-term Bitcoin holders may be approaching a potential turning point following a period of pronounced market stress.
During the current phase of the correction, the Short-Term Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) fell below 0.95.
A reading below this threshold typically indicates that coins are being sold at a loss, reflecting heightened panic selling.
Since reaching its recent lows, the SOPR has rebounded and is now approaching the critical 1.0 level.
Historically, a reclaim and sustained hold above 1.0 after a phase of capitulation has marked the end of short-term loss realization and the beginning of a recovery phase.
While the rebound is notable, SOPR has not clearly moved above the 1.0 threshold. As such, Bitcoin’s price might continue consolidating until buying pressure outpaces selling volume.
BTC Price Could Hit Another Peak
To evaluate whether Ehsani’s Bitcoin 2026 price outlook holds merit, CCN examined the Pi Cycle Top indicator.
Historically, this metric has been used to identify long-term market tops.
At the time of this press release, the 350-day moving average, as tracked by the indicator, is positioned near $204,975.
However, the shorter-term 111-day moving average is positioned around $104,350.
Notably, the two lines remain well separated, suggesting that Bitcoin is not yet approaching the crossover conditions that have historically coincided with major cycle peaks.
While the Pi Cycle Top is not a timing tool and does not predict exact price levels, the current gap between the moving averages implies that Bitcoin’s longer-term upside potential may not yet be thoroughly exhausted.
Therefore, there is a chance that BTC’s price might close in on a new high next year. However, if selling pressure intensifies, Bitcoin may struggle to surpass the $104,000 level.
